Footwear & Accessories Industry Report

April 2021



Exploratory Data Analysis

Distribution of the Response

Correlation between Covariates and Response

Avg Pct Change Sd Pct Change Avg Vol Pe Ratio Price to Sales Ratio Price to Book Ratio Price to Fcf Ratio Debt to Equity Ratio Pays Dividend Dividend Yield Response
min -2.8% 0.7% 6830 0.00 0.060 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0% -1.30000
first_quart -0.1% 1.6% 103000 9.98 0.465 1.08 5.68 0.330 0.000 0% -0.00768
median 0% 2.1% 947000 13.70 0.930 1.74 12.00 0.450 0.000 0% 0.42000
mean 0% 2.5% 2040000 39.50 1.170 2.19 30.70 0.579 0.424 1.1% 0.44300
third_quart 0.2% 3% 2180000 20.30 1.310 2.69 21.20 0.580 1.000 2.3% 0.88400
max 1.7% 15% 20700000 4860.00 7.940 17.70 1210.00 3.060 1.000 6.7% 2.51000



Model Tuning

Random Forest Models

Gradient Boosted Models



Final Models

Random Forest Model

Model Info and Metrics

  • min_n: 1, mtry: 5
  • Mean Absolute Error: 0.2073
  • Root Mean Squared Error: 0.4211


Gradient Boosted Model

Model Info and Metrics

  • learn_rate: 0.1, mtry: 7, tree_depth: 7
  • Mean Absolute Error: 0.0197
  • Root Mean Squared Error: 0.035




Future Predictions

Company Quarter Price RF Prediction GB Prediction
FL 2021 Q1 $50.8 91.47% 87.45%
SKX 2020 Q4 $34.03 73.03% 55.78%
SHOO 2020 Q4 $28.44 48.51% -28.97%
CAL 2021 Q1 $17.03 34.68% 14.12%
WEYS 2020 Q3 $18.25 17.42% 42.84%
RCKY 2020 Q3 $22.7 9.53% 25.04%
VRA 2021 Q1 $9.41 -9.47% -9.01%
NKE 2021 Q1 $139.02 -11.5% -31.81%
WWW 2020 Q4 $29.12 -16.73% -25.32%
FORD 2020 Q4 $1.67 -26.25% -23.51%
CROX 2020 Q4 $57.09 -42.37% -49.03%
DECK 2020 Q4 $266.07 -48.86% -45.57%